The year 2022 marked a turning point for the BJP in terms of electoral success as it achieved a record-breaking victory in Gujarat, its strongest hold. However, it was unable to establish a government in Himachal Pradesh. The Congress won the hill state by defeating the party that ran on the platform of “Congress-mukt Bharat.”
State Elections Trends
16 states go into the elections in 2022-2023, starting in February of the following year. The BJP has direct ownership in nine of the 16 states and alliance governments in three. TRS has one State, and Congress has three. The 2022 results are already out as everyone knows BJP had a overall good year except for Punjab and Himachal Pradesh where AAP and Congress won the assembly respectively.
As these states collectively have 246 seats in the Lok Sabha, the assembly elections will set the stage for the conflict in 2024, according to Anshuman Kumar. The challenge for the BJP is to continue winning and to repeat 2019 in 2024.
The people of Tripura, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Mizoram, Karnataka, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh among many will go into voting in the year 2023, people are considering this to be sort of a semi final before the final show down in the year 2024 in the Lok Sabha elections.
By maintaining control in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Goa, and Manipur, the BJP is in a comfortable position.
Given this, 2023 will be crucial for the saffron party as well as the Congress because the election will set the tone for how the Lok Sabha elections in 2024 will turn out to be.
This year will reveal whether Congress has regained its strength post Bharat Jodo Yatra or whether the BJP’s campaign promise of a Congress-free India will become a reality.
In Telangana and J&K of the ten states and union territories, assembly elections will be held this year—Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Tripura, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Mizoram, and J&K—the BJP will be in direct competition with the Congress.
The saffron party’s national executive meeting just concluded in mid-January 2023 with an agenda and a plan of attack for the upcoming Assembly elections.
The BJP is working to unseat the Congress from power in the states of Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, where it currently holds power. Just to remind the readers that Congress swept Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhatisgarh polls in 2018 but BJP hoarded Congress MLAs in 2020 to establish their government, the way did in Maharashtra.
Ashok Gehlot and Bhupesh Baghel are considered very close to the Gandhi family and the Congress, so the BJP wants to shock both by defeating them.
The saffron party lost the 2018 Assembly elections in Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh. Still, it gained control much later due to a significant defection by Jyotiraditya Scindia and others from MP, as well as the success of Operation Lotus in Karnataka.
The BJP has conducted a Jan Aakrosh Yatra throughout all 200 Rajasthan assembly seats to topple the Gehlot administration. It is also preparing for an effective campaign by uniting all factions. As per reports the yatra was a failure overall and BJP failed to gather much support in Rajasthan.
To strengthen its support base in the State, the BJP is working to bring together the Chhattisgarh party’s divided factions.
The Shivraj administration and the BJP high command have been preparing for victory in the Madhya Pradesh elections against Kamal Nath of Congress.
The BJP high command replaced the then Chief Minister B.S. Yediyurappa with Basavaraj Bommai in 2021 to sway the political climate in Karnataka in its favour.
To alleviate all factions and caste tensions and convey a political message to the State’s citizens, Yediyurappa was appointed to the BJP Parliamentary Board Committee, the party’s highest and most powerful body.
In Telangana, where K. Chandrasekhar Rao serves as chief minister and the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (previously known as Telangana Rashtra Samithi) is in power, assembly elections are also scheduled.
The party has been putting a lot of effort into getting ready to ask for support from the Muslim community, particularly the backward Muslims, in these elections, as they are also interested in the Muslim vote.
The BJP high command will review its strategy by making several trips to Delhi and the states’ capital cities, where the elections will be held this year.
These meetings will be presided over by BJP General Secretary B.L. Santosh, J.P. Nadda, president of the BJP, and Amit Shah, home minister.
Elections for the Legislative Assembly are also scheduled for 2023 in Tripura, Meghalaya, Nagaland, and Mizoram.
The BJP currently controls Tripura, and as part of its election strategy, the party recently replaced the State’s Chief Minister.
Ayodhya Ram Mandir, one of the BJP’s most important campaign issues since its founding, is also likely to be crucial in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The temple’s construction will be completed in late 2023, and it’s anticipated to welcome visitors in January 2024.
Today, the mandir stands for the building of a long-desired temple in Ayodhya and conveys a message that is more about PM Modi, namely, that he keeps his word. This BJP chapter will also be part of the 2024 story.
The BJP took second or third place in these seats in the 2019 elections. Union ministers were dispatched to these districts under Amit Shah and JP Nadda’s direction to evaluate the difficulties and suggest how the party could win these seats.
China, Covid, and the economy are prospective roadblocks to the BJP’s well-laid plans; inflation, in particular, may annoy the average person.
The Bharat Jodo Yatra by Rahul Gandhi is also to watch out for, this Kanyakumari to Kashmir yatra has ruffled many more feathers than anticipated. This yatra surely improved the ranks of congressmen on ground and established Rahul Gandhi as a strong ideological opponent to the BJP-RSS faction. Whether it turns into votes on the D-Day is a question only time will tell.
China is trying to sabotage the copybook by getting involved in border and Tawang skirmishes. Since China’s zero-Covid policy has abruptly come to an end, the rise is being closely watched in case it adopts a new variant and once again poses significant challenges to the country’s failing healthcare system.
Considering the upcoming US recession, the 2023 economic recovery may not go as planned for India.
In 2023, which would be much closer to 2024, there will be several state elections.
In some election cycles in India, voters have chosen the same party to lead the State and the federal governments, but this trend is no longer prevalent in modern politics. In several elections over the past five years, including those in Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Gujarat, and Bihar, voters cast ballots differently. Victory in state elections is not a sure shot for voting patterns and trends for the general elections. People prefer different people in state and center and this will be a factor to see the preference of voters.