According to the latest opinion poll conducted by C-Voter for ABP News, the Congress party is still leading in the Karnataka Assembly elections, although the BJP has narrowed the gap during the final phase of campaigning.
Congress Solidify Their Lead In Latest Poll
Till now all the major opinion polls have predicted a solid victory for Congress party in Karnataka, it is interesting to note that after PM Narendra Modi’s marathon campaigning the vote share of BJP has slightly dropped from previous estimates.
A thorough analysis of the poll data, considering various demographics and categories across the major regions of the state, suggests that the Congress is likely to secure between 110 and 122 seats in the elections scheduled for May 10. It is important to note that the Karnataka Assembly consists of 224 members, and a minimum of 113 seats is required to form a majority government.
The poll projects that the Congress party will receive a vote share of 40.2%, which is an increase of 2.2% compared to the previous Assembly elections in 2018. The BJP, which currently holds the government in the state, is projected to win between 73 and 85 seats. In the 2018 elections, the BJP had won 104 seats.
No rise in BJP’s vote share even after PM Modi’s Campaign
Interestingly, the BJP’s vote share is expected to remain the same at 36%. This projection indicates no improvement for the BJP in terms of both seat numbers and vote share when compared to earlier rounds of the C-Voter poll.
The JD(S) is projected to win between 21 and 29 seats, a decrease from its previous count of 37 seats in 2018. The projected vote share for the JD(S) is 16.1%, which is a decline of nearly 2% compared to the 2018 elections.
With the exception of the Greater Bengaluru region, which sends 32 MLAs to the Karnataka Assembly, the Congress is predicted to win more seats than the BJP in all other regions of the state.
An interesting observation is that the BJP is expected to significantly increase its vote share in the Old Mysuru region, which is traditionally a stronghold of the JD(S), from 17% in 2018 to over 25% this time.
The state of Karnataka will be going to vote in a single phase on 10th of May 2023 and the results will be out on 13th May.
If the BJP lose this election which is looking as a set deal now if opinion polls are to be believed it will be a complete exit of the saffron party from southern India and will be a major boost for Congress before next year’s Lok Sabha polls.
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